Gold Balances at a Tipping Point: Bullish Structure Faces Key Resistance Challenge

Gold (XAU/USD) opened this week with relatively stable price action, holding near the $3,345–$3,355 range. The yellow metal continues to benefit from geopolitical uncertainties and the U.S. Dollar's muted performance. Safe-haven appeal remains strong, anchoring gold above key technical levels and keeping bullish hopes alive.

Still, traders are growing wary of overextension. The Quant Mutual Fund’s recent projection of a 12–15% correction has made waves. Their concerns stem from waning momentum indicators and the increasing likelihood of profit-taking after a prolonged period of steady gains in gold prices.

From a technical standpoint, gold is trading comfortably above its 50-day EMA, reinforcing a broader uptrend. However, the Relative Strength Index is trending downward, suggesting a possible loss of bullish conviction. Strong resistance lies at $3,366 and $3,392, while $3,340 and $3,300 remain immediate support zones.

Forecast models continue to offer a cautiously optimistic outlook. CoinCodex expects gold to climb 3.8% to around $3,562 by late June. If momentum strengthens, bulls may test the $3,635 region, a level that would require favorable geopolitical headlines and dovish cues from central banks.

The key to gold’s short-term trajectory will be whether it can close decisively above $3,366. A breakout with volume could renew upward pressure, while failure to do so might invite sellers. Any drop below $3,340 would open the door to a correction toward the $3,260–$3,280 range.

Macroeconomic data and U.S. Federal Reserve commentary will likely shape investor expectations this week. Hawkish tones from policymakers could challenge gold’s strength, while dovish remarks or weak inflation readings would support continued upside. Traders should remain alert to market-moving news.

In summary, gold stands at a technical inflection point. Although the long-term trend remains bullish, short-term momentum is uncertain. Traders must closely monitor price reactions to resistance and support zones, as the market decides whether gold will continue higher or begin a corrective phase.