Title: Peace in Peril: South Sudan Teeters on the Edge of Renewed Conflict

South Sudan’s fragile peace agreement, established in 2018 to end a bloody civil war, is now under serious threat following the arrest of Vice President Riek Machar. His detention, alongside the removal of other top SPLM/A-IO officials, has triggered fears of renewed violence in a country that has already lost hundreds of thousands to conflict. Machar’s party stated the arrest has effectively nullified the peace pact with President Salva Kiir.

Once part of Sudan, South Sudan gained independence in 2011 after decades of struggle but quickly descended into civil war by 2013, with a second outbreak in 2016. The 2018 peace agreement brought together Kiir and Machar in a unity government with five vice presidents, aiming to bridge the country’s deep ethnic divide — mainly between the Dinka and Nuer communities. However, ethnic tensions and political rivalries have continued to simmer beneath the surface.

The latest tension was exacerbated by Kiir’s invitation to Ugandan troops to help fight a local militia in Nasir. The SPLM/A-IO denounced the Ugandan involvement as an act of aggression against civilians and a clear violation of the peace deal. Machar himself wrote to the UN Secretary-General condemning the intervention, calling it illegal and destabilizing.

Clashes erupted in Nasir this month between government forces and the White Army, a Nuer militia. Dozens of lives have been lost, and the government accuses Machar of inciting the violence, including an alleged attack on a UN helicopter. The White Army denies any connection to Machar or his political group, yet the accusations have been enough to justify his arrest.

International alarm is rising. UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric warned the situation is bringing South Sudan closer to civil war, while Secretary-General António Guterres described the peace deal as “in shambles.” Western powers — including the US, UK, EU, and others — have jointly called for Machar’s release and an immediate ceasefire among armed factions.

The deteriorating situation has led the US and UK to advise their citizens to leave the country as soon as possible. In response to the escalating crisis, the African Union has announced plans to send a delegation to the capital, Juba, to ease tensions. Meanwhile, Kenyan President William Ruto’s envoy met with Kiir, and mediator Raila Odinga expressed hope for a peaceful resolution.

Despite its natural oil wealth, South Sudan remains one of the poorest nations globally. The World Bank has painted a grim picture of governance failures and widespread poverty, with over two-thirds of the population living on less than $2.15 a day. Political instability, violence, and poor management have intensified humanitarian needs and crippled economic development.

The UN Refugee Agency reports that South Sudan is home to over half a million refugees from neighboring war-torn countries, even as it battles its own crises. The UN has labeled South Sudan “a country on the edge,” as it grapples with overlapping emergencies — from political collapse to worsening humanitarian conditions — threatening to reverse any progress made since the 2018 peace deal.